Child Abuse and Neglect Fatalities 2016: Sources and Calculations
Rodger Williams
March 2, 2018

2016 Number of students: 51,644,000 (age 5-17)
U.S. Department of Education
https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017102.pdf Table 7

2016 Number of students "homeschooled": 1,690,000 (age 5-17)
U.S. Department of Education
https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017102.pdf Table 7

2016 Percentage of students "homeschooled": 3.3%
U.S. Department of Education
https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017102.pdf Table 7

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
Child Maltreatment 2016
https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/cb/cm2016.pdf

"For FFY 2016, a nationally estimated 1,750 children died from abuse and neglect" p. 53

84.5% of child abuse fatalities happen before age six: Table 4-4 (see Exhibit 4-B)

15.5% of child abuse fatalities happen from age 6-17: Table 4-4 (see Exhibit 4-B)
 
Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics
https://www.childstats.gov/americaschildren/tables/pop1.asp

0-5 24.0 million
6-11 24.7 million
12-17 25.0 million
Total 73.6 million

"Homeschool child fatalities fewer than the national average"
by Rodger Williams July 28, 2017
https://homeschoolingbackgrounder.com/homeschool-child-fatalities-fewer-than-national-average/

The legally homeschooled fatality rate is 40% lower than the national average, ie., it is 60% of the national rate

- The study estimated truants masquerading as homeschoolers to be the same proportion as the national dropout rate: 7%
- So the number of legally-homeschooled students would be 0.93 * 1,690,000 = 1,571,700

Preschool fatalities
  = proportion of child abuse fatalities before age six * total child fatalities
  = 0.845 * 1750
  = 1479

Preschool fatality rate
  = preschool fatalities / number of preschoolers
  = 1479 / 24.0 million
  = 61.6 fatalities per million children

Number of school age children
  = number of children age 6-11
  + number of children age 12-17
  = 24.7 million + 25.0 million
  = 49.7 million

School age fatalities
  = proportion of child abuse fatalities from age 6-17 * total child fatalities
  = 0.155 * 1750
  = 271

School age fatality rate
  = school age fatalities / number of school age children
  = 271 / 49.7 million
  = 5.5 fatalities per million children

Legally-homeschooled fatality rate
  = 0.6 * school age fatality rate
  = 0.6 * 5.5 fatalities per 1,000,000 children
  = 3.3 fatalities per 1,000,000 children

Legally-homeschooled fatalities
  = legally-homeschooled fatality rate * number of legally-homeschooled children
  = 3.3 fatalities per 1,000,000 children * 1,571,700
  = 5.2
  = 5

School age not-legally-homeschooled fatalities
  = school age fatalities - legally-homeschooled fatalities
  = 271 - 5
  = 266

Number of school age not-legally-homeschooled children
  = number of school age children - number of legally-homeschooled children
  = 49.7 million - 1.57 million
  = 48.1 million
 
School age not-legally-homeschooled fatality rate
  = school age not-legally-homeschooled fatalities / number of school age not-legally-homeschooled children
  = 266 / 48.1 million
  = 5.53 fatalities per million children
  = 5.5 fatalities per 1,000,000 children